The Old Farmer’s Almanac is North America’s oldest continuously published periodical. It was first published in 1792 during George Washington’s first term as president. On one hand, I respect any organization that puts their weather prediction out there. On the other hand, I think they’re struggling this year:

“JANUARY 2014: temperature 38° (5° above avg.); precipitation 3″ (avg.); Jan 1-8: Snow showers, cold; Jan 9-11: Rainy, mild; Jan 12-17: Showers, quite mild; Jan 18-20: Flurries, cold; Jan 21-26: Rainy periods, mild; Jan 27-31: Rain and snow showers; cold, then mild.”

A statistical analysis of Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasts gives them slightly better than 50 percent accuracy, although (because of vague predictions and ranges) they say they are closer to 80 percent.

Modern weather forecasting is amazingly more accurate than it was 20 or 30 years ago. The fact that they can reliably predict snowfall quantities is pretty amazing. But, they still miss the mark on a regular basis. In baseball, striking out 60 percent of the time lands you in Cooperstown, but not so much with weather.

Winter is always a tough season. The days are short and cold. The nights are long and colder. This year we’ve had a “Polar Vortex” (I saw a mock film poster where a Polar Vortex was raining polar bears down on an unsuspecting public, ala Sharknado), snows and more subfreezing temperatures. Coupled with the water crisis where people simply stayed home (or only went out in search of clean water), and another round of cold and miserable days, cabin fever is becoming a real problem.

This Sunday is Groundhog Day, a time when we look to the weather prognostication talents of a fat, furry rodent. Statistically, groundhogs in multiple locations are only accurate about a third of the time—effectively equal to chance. Sunday is also Candlemas, a Christian holiday where orthodox Christians bring candles to church to be blessed either for use at home or in the church. (It corresponds to three different events in the bible including Jesus’ presentation at the temple as an infant, following Mary’s purification.) Many Christian holidays replace pagan holidays and Sunday corresponds to Imbolc, a Gaelic festival and the Roman feast of Lupercalia.

Whether you celebrate Candlemas or Groundhog Day, Sunday is effectively Winter’s halfway point. I think we can all agree that it would be great if it is cloudy on Sunday. That way, when the Groundhog pops his head out of his den, he won’t see his shadow and an early spring is on the way. I know statistically that doesn’t mean anything, but at this point, I’m looking for anything to get me to Spring..

Last week I went to the Kanawha County Courthouse to take care of my personal property taxes and renew the license on my car. In case you didn’t know it, the sheriff’s tax office can process your car license for you. This is a great service as far as I’m concerned and definitely worth the extra dollar to not have to go to the DMV and stand in line. 

Many years ago when I was in college I worked a couple summers for the tax office. One of the nicest humans on the planet, Sharon, worked there and used to look after the college kids. We were her kids. I hadn’t seen Sharon in 20 years before last year when I went in to get my car licensed after moving back to West Virginia. She remembered me, took me by the hand and got me straightened out. This year, I walked into the office and there she was again. Once again she took care of me.

The only thing, the tax office doesn’t take cards to process licenses. Only cash or checks. As my wife will tell you, I never carry cash or at least not very much. I just happened to have exactly enough cash in my pocket. That didn’t leave me any cash to get out of the parking garage, though. Sharon immediately went to her purse and grabbed a couple dollars to save me the hassle of finding an ATM.

The older I get the more amazed I am at the way people come back around in my life after long absences. It only reinforces to me over and over how important it is to treat people well. I have often said I really don’t have regrets in my life, except that there are people I didn’t treat as well as they deserved.

With everything we have gone through in the last couple weeks, this lesson is more important to me now than ever. Please continue to remember your servers and throw a little extra their way. Most people don’t realize the minimum wage for “tipped employees” is $5.80 an hour in West Virginia. Servers make most of their money from your tips and the water crisis deprived a lot of people who typically function on a paycheck to paycheck basis of their income. Let’s do what we can to make it up to them.

Thank you Sharon for your help and generosity. And I promise I will pay you back. And I will do my best to remember to pay it forward to someone else at the same time..

Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try Again. Fail again. Fail better.

Samuel Beckett

“I sent you the Strawberry Lady schedule,” my wife tells me a few days ago, meaning she forwarded me an email. She is sitting across the room when she tells me this.

All the men reading this will instantly know this was not done out of courtesy. It was not, “I thought you might be interested to know that the Strawberry Lady is beginning her rounds.” Or “Wouldn’t fresh strawberries taste great right now.” No, this meant “I expect you to go get me strawberries. Here is where you can find them.”

So, that’s how I found myself sitting in a local parking lot, in my car, in sub-freezing temperatures, waiting to buy a flat of strawberries.

I admire people who can see a need and then find a way to fill that need. There are so many things that could go wrong with a seasonal business like that, it’s scary. Fruit that sits on a truck too long, or gets too cold in transit, might not be worth buying when it arrives. I believe that’s called chutzpah (the modern definition, anyway, said the white Protestant using a Yiddish word.) With great risk comes great reward. And, of course, the possibility of failure.

For most of us, the possibility of failure isn’t something we’re willing to contemplate. But failing is where we learn the most. Any coach will tell you that. You don’t learn anything from winning. When you lose, or fail, you find things to fix. And then you go out and do it again.

Taking a risk and trying something new doesn’t mean going into business importing strawberries in winter. It might mean writing poetry or painting a picture or entering your prize pie recipe into a contest. For me, taking risks and “putting it out there” is the definition of the human condition. That is what makes us different. I see a lot of people complain about their lives on social media. When I see people say how bored or frustrated they are, I always wonder if they’re taking any risks or trying anything new.

Don’t get me wrong, failing sucks. There’s no way around that. And sometimes, after you’ve failed several times, it can get so frustrating you question why you ever started in the first place. A few days later, something comes to mind and you think “Maybe if I tried…” and then you are off again.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go clean up some strawberries for dinner. And then, I think I might just start writing a new story..

I still get excited when I see a news report showing snow in the forecast. It goes back to my school days, of course, looking forward to a day away from classes, outside playing in the snow, drying out by the fire in the basement and drinking hot chocolate.

That excitement is quickly replaced by dread as I think about the roads and driving to work and friends and family trying to get places in spite of the icy conditions. It also means shoveling the driveway and clearing the front steps. Snow on the ground doesn’t absolve me of going to work, either. That’s the downside of being an adult, I guess.

On the upside, I still have a fire in the fireplace and hot chocolate has been replaced by cappuccino from the one-cup coffeemaker.

Weather forecasting has improved dramatically since I was a kid, too. In some ways that’s good. Thirty seven years ago this month, then-Governor Jay Rockefeller warned the state about an impending snow storm that never materialized. He has never lived it down. That would most likely never happen today. Better weather knowledge also allows the state road people to treat highways and make it easier and safer for people to get to work.

In other ways, those improved forecasts give some of us too much time to worry about. I got the notice of a Winter Weather Advisory on my phone on Wednesday night before last week’s Thursday evening/Friday morning snow. I had been planning to go to the store on Thursday morning anyway. As soon as I saw that advisory, I knew I needed to go early to avoid the crowds.

Not long ago, a friend of mine observed that snow storms must make people crave French toast since everyone runs out for milk, eggs and bread. (Yes, I did get milk at the store, because we were out, but I skipped the bread and eggs.) I refer to this as the “French toast panic attack” where store shelves are stripped bare of those basics at the simplest mention of snow.

This winter has already brought some tremendous storms, although West Virginia seems to have been spared the worst of it. We’ve had cold and snow, but we haven’t had the blizzard-like conditions that the Midwest and the Northeast have endured.

If you’re fortunate enough to be able to stay home during the next snow, take a break from scraping the driveway and go sledding. Make some French toast or whatever it is you do with all those eggs, milk and bread. Enjoy the natural beauty of the state and remember what it’s like to be a kid.

That’s something we forget all too soon..

I made my first visit to Russia in January of 1993. We left on January 3 and returned on January 12.  That meant I was there for Christmas.

Let me explain.

In 1582, Pope Gregory and the First Council of Nicea decided to adjust the calendar to make Easter fall on the date agreed to by the church in 325. It is all pretty confusing, but in general the world has adopted the new calendar they came up with…the Gregorian one. The Russian Orthodox Church, however, still follows the older Julian calendar. That calendar was itself a reformation of the Roman calendar and was created by Julius Caesar himself. The Julian Calendar places Christmas Day on the Gregorian calendar’s January 7.While the Russians, and the rest of the world, follow the Gregorian calendar for business and shipping convenience, the church still abides by the church calendar. And it took a long time to get the whole world on board with the current calendar. Into the early 20^th century, a few countries were still following the Julian calendar.

Considering the shifts of the calendar, dates and anniversaries are really pretty subjective. We decide a date is important and everyone agrees on it, but most of the time we don’t know if that date is the correct one or not. (Of course, I’m referring to early history dates, not your kid’s birthday or your wedding anniversary. Those dates are pretty firm and you’re on your own if you miss them.)

On New Year’s Day, I often hear people say that they hope this year is better than the last. It is as if things will miraculously change by themselves because we move from December 31 to January 1, an arbitrary designation on a calendar. I’m not saying I don’t join in on the celebrations. Well, I used to. My New Year’s Eves are a lot tamer than they used to be.

I guess my point is (I’m sure you were beginning to wonder) while January 1 is a great day to make a new beginning and to change something about yourself that you don’t like or to resolve to do something differently, if you fail two days later, it’s okay. You can make a new resolution. January 1 is just a date on the calendar. Don’t give up and feel like you have to wait until next year. No one knows what the “real” first day of the year is, anyway.

Happy New Year!.